BTJ’s 2006 report lists 12 ships feedering in the Baltic with a total nominal capacity of 8 ,500 TEU. Now, five years on, the census shows 160 feeders and 157,000 TEU – almost twice the amount in the main term of productivity.

Five years ago, in our first report on container shipping in the Baltic Sea, we compared this business to “a bunch of parsley tied to the Kiel Canal”. Its roots are ingrained in a few hubs on the North Sea, while stems and leaves reach the northernmost ports of the Gulf of Bothnia. Although some ocean and transatlantic container services have started to call in Gdańsk and St. Petersburg since the beginning of 2010, this general picture has not changed. Against all odds, feeder shipping now has stronger roots and richer greens.

Shipping lines are investing in larger ships to take advantage of the economies of scale, but they are also forming unusual alliances to ensure that they are able to fully utilise their ships. They need deepwater ports that can handle the bigger ships, which is likely to mean fewer port calls and the elimination of secondary calls from rotations on the main arterial routes.

In 2009 most countries, with the exception of Poland, experienced a decrease in GDP. Initially, there was a huge surplus of tonnage, which caused problems. It was reduced during 2010, so that only 2% of the fleet was actually in lay-up, compared to 9% in 2009. There was a greater use of slow or even super slow steaming, which again ate up the surplus of tonnage, and is now becoming the standard. Major shipping lines, such as Maersk and CMA, announced huge profits in 2010 to counter effect the huge losses in 2009. However, in the first half of 2011 we can again see a decline in profit and the cancellation of some main arterial services. This is the first sign of the renewed negative pressures on the market and that’s largely because of the severity of the underlying supply/demand position.

“Ticking Bomb?” “Disaster?” If these and similar expressions are used in the public discussion on transport infrastructure – in this case in an official statement of the Kiel Nautical Association in regard to the situation of the Kiel Canal – then it should be taken as a warning signal that something seems to be extremely wrong.

This impression is enforced by the fact that in late August the German Shipowners’ Association (VDR), the German Shipbrokers’ Association (ZVDS) and the Association of German Seaport Operators (ZDS) all signed a joint open letter to Dr. Peter Ramsauer, the German Federal Minister of Transport, Building and Urban Development (BMVBS) – urging the Federal Government to strengthen public investment in the modernization of the Kiel Canal, especially to start with the construction of a fifth lock chamber in Brunsbüttel at the westerly end of the canal.